Risk and Decision Making, Part 1

A friend reminded me recently of a vow I had made almost thirty years ago based on Henri David Thoreau's quote from, "Life in the Woods:"

 I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived. I did not wish to live what was not life, living is so dear; nor did I wish to practice resignation, unless it was quite necessary. I wanted to live deep and suck out all the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life, to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms.

When it comes to faith-based decision making in risk and uncertainty, there are several key quadrants that must be paid attention to understand all of risk. Not paying attention to the following areas will result in less understanding of what is happening both from a global perspective as well as an individual perspective. The areas are complex and overlapping.

The following is a synthesis from both a Theology-of-Risk approach,(1) as well as utilizing and adapting the research from well over 1000 studies on the emotions and human behavior in risk.(2) 

Decision making in Cross-Cultural Risk and Uncertainty include awareness and analysis in four  broad categories:
       
      Spiritual Analysis

1. What does the Holy Spirit seem to be leading me, my family, and my team in - staying in and moving towards more risk or leaving? (Evaluate the 7 ways the HS often leads in risk)
2. The inner self in relation to God; Am I moving towards God or away from Him? What seems to be my core question of God in this risk situation?
3. The inner self in relation to others and self; Am I increasing in faith, love and hope?
4. In what ways do I/we see the heavenly realm participating in this risk situation? (i.e. Demonic opposition?)
5. What is the most strategic decision we could make right now? 

      Emotional/Psychological Analysis

1. What are my strong emotions in this risk situation and what about the risk is impacting me the most? 
2. How am I behaving in comparison to predicted behavior in risk? 
3.  Which of the 5+ biases are influencing my decision making?

     Stewardship and Information Analysis

1. Do I have enough and the right kind of information to make a decision in risk? 
2. Have I done enough evaluation of the data and my staff/families?
3. What have I identified that I cannot know or will remain uncertain?  
4. Based on the information I do have, what and how am I being called to steward?
5. What does "stewarding the information" look like in this risk situation?
6. Who should give input on the decision, who makes the decision, who can veto the decision? Who needs to be informed about the decision?  

      Benefits and Losses (Risk Framing and Prospect Theory)

1. What are the potential value of losses and gains using the analysis above?  
2. How is the risk being "Framed"?
3. What "mental models" is the person bringing to the decision-making? 
4. How is "confirmation bias" informing the decision-making? 
5. Group Decision-making

1. Hampton, Facing Danger. My book is necessarily brief on the topic of decision making, as it is geared to those in the middle of risk who often don't have time to wade through complex psychological research. I'll unpack the complexity in following blog posts.

2. Breakwell, The Psychology of Risk. Breakwell cites a lot of the research, and has the most comprehensive summary of decision-making and emotions on risk. However, other key researchers will be cited throughout.